I was considering this for long time and after checking the stats for 3 seasons and results of last month I decided to change a little stakes of my bets.

As you probably spotted I got best results in ACB league, with yield 22 % for 3 seasons, comparing to 8 % for Euroleague and Adriatic. So I decided to bet little more on ACB and less on the other leagues. Generally I prefer flat stake, most of the bets were 7/10 and from now on I am going to bet 8/10 on ACB and 5/10 on the other leagues. (Probably more than 90 % of the bets will have such stake, only sometimes it will bet 1 unit more or less once I will find it more profitably on particular game).

This change should generally keep the profit on similar level (little more on ACB, less on the rest), but should improve slightly yield and I hope it will be safer (loosing streaks shouldn't be so destructing for our bank).

Season 2009 / 2010: Picks 169 / 303 (56 %) , profit + 20 , yield 1 %
Season 2010 / 2011 : Picks 340 / 570 (60 %), profit +442 , yield 12 %

Season 2011 / 2012 (VIII - I ) : Picks 89 / 154 (58 %), profit +133 , yield 12 %

all ACB picks (X 2009 - I 2012) : 280 picks, profit +391 , yield 22 %

Real yield
I don't "pump" yield taking odds hard to bet, as this is easy way to improve results, but you can't repeat it with real money. That's why I won't take odds from poor bookies like Interwetten, Nordicbet, Stan James, etc. I still use here Interwetten sometimes , to have the odds verified, but than in analysys I'll write other bookies with the same line, which offer better limits , but are not in blogabet system (Bodog, 5Dimes, BetCris, Sbobet, Gamebookers, ...)

Because of the same reason, I don't take starting price at Pinnacle, when you can get sometimes great odds, but the limits are low and odds drop quickly.

Mailing list
I got recently many mails asking about "mailing list" . I haven't run anything like this , but I decided to start such service, to make it easier to follow my picks, as not everyone likes to use RSS feed. Plain picks (without previews) wil be sent FREE and AT THE SAME TIME as posted on blogabet. Anyone interested please let me know on e-mail.

contact : basketer@europe.com

I don't post it as regular bets, as it is only from one bookmaker and probably not everyone can catch. Such bets can't be verified by Blogabet system and it wouldn't look good to make big profit on unverified odds ;)

But I think it is huge value and recommend these bets from William Hill :

To Qualify for Second Round - Group C :
Macedonia @13.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina @41.0
Finnland @76.0

To Qualify for Second Round - Group D
Belgium@16.0

I would bet it 10/10, but WH set some limits, so it is not so easy... . Obviously 10/10 doesn't mean that I am sure these bets are winners, but this is big "value".

Edit: Group C results:
1. Macedonia
2. Greece
3. Finland

Macedonia @13.0 and Finland@76.0 , which I adviced to bet 10/10 , both won !!!

Deducting bets on Belgium and BH it makes 850 units net profit !!!

I adviced in meantime to lock part of the proft backing Croatia, and for some of the followers, who hedged it , it is still 730 profit :)

Discuss in forum (2 entries)

Efes has to win this game to keep their chances for top-8.  Galatasaray probably even loosing this game and winning vs Olympiacos will qualify. Efes won already twice vs Galata, once away in TBL and recently at home in EL. I think they got deeper roster and should be more motivated. Only advantage of Galata is homecourt , but as this is derby game, this advantage is not so big and players of  Efes played in this hall many times.

Galata won vs CSKA , that's why is so big favourites, but I believe it was rather weaker day of CSKA. Galata played 5 times in EL at home and only vs CSKA managed to win in regular time, so they are not so strong at home, despite huge fan support.

Discuss in forum (4 entries)

CSKA lost surprisingly vs Galatasaray, where we could see that lack of Khryapa is more importatn than it might seem. But since than they played 3 games vs Russian teams, so they had possibility to learn how to play without Khryapa. At home they played 18 times in all competitions and 17 times they won by double digit (only vs Prokom they had single digit victory, when they played without their leaders and Prokom won last minute 9-0) and after last loss they should be definitelly motivated for this game.

Olympiacos will play without their PF Printezis and this is big loss for them. He is second scorer of the team in top 16, was best player of Olympiacos in their last victory vs Panathinaikos. Antic should take some of his minutes, but he is not so effiecient in offence. Olympiacos can loose this game, as they probably doubt in first place in the group, so winning game vs Galatasaray will be crucial for them.

-10,5@ Will Hill -9,5@bet770

Discuss in forum (1 entries)

Copa del Rey in Barcelona

Both teams play slow tempo, that's why the line is so low,but at the same time these teams are very effiecient in offense (both are in top 4 of ACB considering number of points per possesion). On top of that Barcelona improved their offence since Navarro is back in the team , after injury. Against Alicante they had low scoring game, but they didn't play so slow, but Alicante is really well defending team (similar as Caja Laboral), so it is no so easy to score against them. Today I don't expect so easy victory for Barca as on Thursday, so their best players should spend more minutes on the court and improve offence. On the other hand Alicante scored only 54 points, but it wasn't only because of great defence of Barca (which was good ), but Alicante missed many open shots for 3 (only 2/17 ) and even easy lau ups , which probably even amateur could score , Barnes, Ivanov and Kone missed. I don't expect such poor shooting from Caja today.

138,5@Expekt, Bet770, Tipico

Discuss in forum (1 entries)

Copa del Rey in Barcelona

No much to say about it. Real fastest palying team in ACB , in last 10 games (ACB, EL) total score 9 times was over 150. Tomic missed last game , but should be back today, what is good news for their offence.

Fuenlabrada had recently problems with injuries , Mainoldi , Penney missed some games what caused big problems for their offence (like only 57 points vs Real and 59 vs Manresa). Now they got full roster, Hall played great game vs Murcia, Diouf gives them extra rebounds, so they should score much more today.

151,5@bluesquare, 888sport , 152,5@most other bookies

Discuss in forum (2 entries)

Copa del Rey in Barcelona

Malaga in last 10 games (EL and ACB ) only twice had total score under 153. They had couple of terrible games vs Obradoiro and Gran Canaria, but it looks their offence improves.

Cajasol played recently against 3 slowest playing teams in ACB  (and really well defending teams - Gran Canaria, Caja Laboral, Alicante ) and still total score of these games were not so low after 40 minutes - 145, 139, 146. When they played against much faster Real (similar style as Malaga) score was 161 points despite terrible offence of Cajasol. They played this game without main player Davis , but he is back and should improve offence.

Discuss in forum (2 entries)

Copa del Rey in Barcelona

Both teams were in worse shape recently, but as I wrote on weekend Malaga showed some signs of improvement already in Siena and confirmed it in Valladolid. With Freeland and Darden they got better and deeper roster than Cajasol, what they proved already this season, beating them by 4 points in away games.

Cajasol lost last 3 games and especially loss vs Real was really worring for them. They played without Davis, but still shouldn't lose like this. I don't believe , they can bounce bak so quickly and beat Malaga. Davis should play today, despite finger injury. So he might not play at his usuall level and there is always problem that he might quickly get in foul trouble against strong froncourt of Malaga.

-4,0@Expekt, Nordicbet

Discuss in forum (5 entries)

Copa del Rey in Barcelona

Lagun Aro is not a team, which losses matches by double digit and this happened to them only twice this season (vs Barcelona and… Caja Laboral). They stay close in most of the games and playing on neutral ground I expect the same. They lost in Vittoria, by 12 points , despite loosing only by 5 in 4th quarter, but couple triples of Caja increased the gap. On top of that in that game Caja had still centers Seraphin and Dorsey and I think they are stronger than current duo Bjellica/ Golubovic.  (Lampe might get some minutes, but after such long break it shouldn't matter).

Lagun lost in Valencia last weekend, where I bet against them, but they played better than I expected and Valencia managed to increase the gap in last minutes, loosing for long time.

Caja is not in best shape now, struggling at home vs Gran Canaria and loosing against poor Obradoiro.